Thursday, February 19, 2009

New Homes Sales falling to new lows in Las Vegas

Wow, this is much lower than ever thought. Here we are, January 2009, and only 287 new homes were sold this month in Las Vegas. That is piddly peanuts and a 66% drop from the horrible 2008. We're sinking with no bottom in sight. To balance it out, the exisiting home sales was not that bad, stable but with huge value declines across the board from foreclosure bargain hunting. It has gotten so bad, that we may start looking at loading the guns to enter market and clean up. Point of entry may be near you sooner than you think.

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Las Vegas Appreciation Map for 1st Quarter 2008 in comparison




First Appreciation Rate Map February 2005: Homeowners hit the jackpot
Second Appreciation Rate Map February 2008: Hit bottom?


I am always surprised to find that most potential buyers, and especially the international buyers, do not know that there is a vast pool of information available that they can use in making their property purchase decision. Informed investors make the best investments. So today, one more tip - a crucial one - about the Vegas real estate market.

Every quarter the Las Vegas Review Journal publishes a city Map for most of Clark County. I have been using this map for years to give early indicators of where to invest.

This is the latest appreciation rate map, dated February 24, 2008



In our next posts we will delve a little more into the significance of this map for your investment decision making.

Rudy Straat

Las Vegas Real: A little Uptick!



For a while it seemed that the downward spiral dwindling prices and less sales was not coming to a stop. Today, the neumbers for last month were released. Surprise, surprise. There was an uptick in sales. I know in talking to the Realtors out here, that they were receiving LOW offers, but offers nevertheless. If this continues, prices will follow with a uptick upwards as well. Not all bad news today.

REAL ESTATE: Single-family home sales inch up

Inventory of residences also increases, posts 2 percent rise

Sales of single-family homes increased 11.7 percent in February to 1,098, but inventory of homes for sale rose 1.7 percent to 22,497, the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported.

Statistics compiled from the Multiple Listing Service continue to show trends similar to previous months, Realtors association president Patty Kelley said Tuesday.

Median home prices declined slightly to $246,500, down 1.4 percent from January and down 20.6 percent from the same month a year ago.

Lower home prices are mainly due to a large number of short sales, or homes sold for less than the balance owed on the mortgage, and bank-owned homes being sold at reduced prices, Kelley said. They accounted for 41.5 percent of February's sales.

"There's light at the end of the tunnel because we had a 12 percent increase in sales," she said. "We're seeing a lot more activity in the market now. I talked to some Realtors this morning and people are actually smiling when I see them. We're weaning through foreclosures and getting foreclosures sold one by one. It's a lot more promising."

Bargains abound with some homes selling for less than what it would cost to build them today, Kelley said.

Real estate consultant John Burns said wise builders are adjusting their product offerings to appeal to a larger segment of buyer demand in this down housing market.

Builders are lowering costs per square foot and the overall home price by changing from larger floorplans to smaller, more compact designs and offering a variety in home sizes, he said. Sometimes it's as easy as removing living and dining rooms or shrinking the size of rooms.

"Rarely would you decrease the number of bedrooms," Burns said.

Foreclosure properties present a great buying opportunity, Kelley said, but buyers can't expect similar prices for all homes.

"We get calls from all over the country because everyone wants to know what's going on in Las Vegas," she said. "Everybody wants to come here."

For condos and townhomes, the median sales price fell to $150,000 in February, a 7.4 percent decline from the previous month and 26.5 percent decline from a year ago. Inventory of units for sale dropped to 5,380, eight fewer than the previous month and a 2.6 percent decline from a year ago.

Kelley said another positive development is last week's announcement that the Federal Housing Administration is raising loan limits in Clark County from $304,000 to $400,000.

"That's a huge thing because of the fact we have so many service workers in the casinos and they can easily get an FHA loan. The guidelines are more relaxed than a conventional loan," she said.

Association statistics are based on data collected through the MLS and do not necessarily account for newly constructed homes sold by local builders and other transactions not involving a Realtor.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Las Vegas: Good Growth, Declining Prices, Time to Buy?



The LV Review Journal came out today with an article that describes the fundamentals of the market as still strong although the prices have been hammered with a drop of the median property price of more than $30,000. That is significant. No one can still if we have seen the end of the price declines, but in my opinion we are not far.

This graph says it all, but keep on reading the article is worth it:



Here is what the Review Journal had to say:

Slump? Not here. Local economic index hits record

Higher gambling win, taxable sales help fuel February jump in university's monthly gauge

Despite recessionary trends in the national economy, the Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators reached a record high of 133.93 in February, though more data series showed declines than increases.

The index, compiled by the Center for Business and Economic Research at University of Nevada, Las Vegas, is up from 133.56 in January and 132.79 in the same month a year ago. Its baseline of 100 was established in 1985.

Only three series made a positive contribution to the index, but they carry relatively larger weights than the declining series, said Keith Schwer, director of the research center.

"Wait until next month," he said. "With new information, that (index) could go down. It may well be that we're looking at the peak, but we don't know."

Gross gaming revenue for Clark County grew 4.1 percent in December, the month of data used for February's index, to about $946 million. It's the largest contributor to the upward movement in the index and more than made up for a weak November.

Visitor volume was up 0.71 percent to 3.08 million and taxable sales increased 1.34 percent to $3.49 billion.

Overall, the economic index continues to track along a flat course, suggesting a short-term outlook at or near current conditions over the first half of the year, Schwer said.

Furthermore, the recent path of the index points to "continued vulnerability" of the Southern Nevada economy to further weakening of the U.S. economy, he said.

The economic index is a six-month forecast from the month of the data, based on a net-weighted average of each series after adjustments for seasonal variation.

The accompanying Review-Journal chart includes several of the index's categories, along with data such as new residents and employment and housing numbers, updated for the most recent month for which figures are available.

Neil Durkee, business development director for Matt Construction in Las Vegas, said financing has tightened for construction projects, particularly some of the condominium projects that have recently fallen into bankruptcy or halted work.

"Very honestly, the thing we see that's drying up major construction is lack of financing available for major projects," he said. "Money is difficult to find."

Nevertheless, Matt is doing preconstruction analysis for the Lady Luck in downtown Las Vegas that could see renovation work begin in October or November and for the World Jewelry Center that will be coming out of the ground in 2009, Durkee said.

The center's Clark County Tourism Index showed some improvement in December, though higher fuel prices and higher load factors for airlines continue to constrain visitor volume, Schwer said.

The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority reported 39.2 million visitors in 2007, a 0.7 percent increase from 38.9 million in 2006. Hotel occupancy remained strong at 90.4 percent.

With the drop in the value of the U.S. dollar and appreciation of foreign currencies such as the euro, Las Vegas is getting a fairly high percentage of people coming from outside the United States, Schwer said.

"That tends to soften the downturn because you get people who might not have otherwise come," he said.

Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or (702) 383-0491.

Tuesday, September 4, 2007